Just a few weeks into 2023, stakeholders across the media marketing ecosystem have already made their moves on the chessboard of the future of video measurement. On January 9, four major television networks jointly established a committee focused on advancing multi-currency and streaming measurement solutions—just two days later, Nielsen's long-awaited cross-platform measurement product, One Ads, officially launched.

These initiatives follow several small agreements among ad tech companies earlier in the year and represent the latest developments in addressing cross-platform measurement within a fragmented media landscape, which continues to be reshaped by the sustained growth of streaming. Although the landscape has been shifting for years, 2023 may see the advertising industry take significant steps toward moving away from Nielsen's dominance—a dominance still mired in the aftermath of accreditation controversies.

"While Nielsen is clearly no longer the sole currency for video measurement, it remains unclear which of the many alternative currencies will ultimately become widely adopted industry tools," said IAB CEO David Cohen in an email comment. "With a wealth of test results being published, 2023 will bring greater clarity. We believe the industry will ultimately settle on 2-3 primary vendors."

As marketers gear up for 2023, which products can rise as alternative currencies, how Nielsen's role will evolve, and what impact the annual upfronts will face are likely to be the most closely watched questions. For media buyers, these changes may bring more headaches than solutions, but that is unlikely to stop major media sellers from pushing toward a landscape that grants them more choice and stronger bargaining power.

Joint Industry Committee (JIC) Established

Fox, NBCUniversal, Paramount, TelevisaUnivision, and Warner Bros. Discovery, together with OpenAP and the Video Advertising Bureau (VAB), have formed the Joint Industry Committee (JIC). This marks a significant step for the television industry. After a period of preparation, the JIC will focus on supporting multiple currencies and establishing cross-platform measurement solutions for streaming video, with the goal of implementing relevant solutions before the 2024 upfronts—and this work cannot move forward if audience data remains completely siloed.

"There really needs to be some shared datasets; these should not be exclusively held by any one party, or it creates poor industry dynamics," said EDO CEO Kevin Krim. "Innovation should happen at the technology and data science level, not in who has the best proprietary dataset, because that drags down the entire market."

The formation of the JIC is a move by the traditional television world to unite and weaken Nielsen's monopoly power. It replicates the model Europe has used for years to set measurement methodology standards and is expected to foster competition and innovation in the field. Though somewhat late, it is a natural evolution.

"There is considerable alignment of interests among the members," said Ashwin Navin, co-founder and CEO of Samba TV. "The companies currently involved all hold significant positions in broadcast and cable television, and they need to ensure there is a methodology that accurately counts that reach and integrates it with streaming reach."

Notably absent from the JIC are companies primarily focused on streaming, including Netflix, Amazon, and Disney, which is increasingly pivoting to streaming. These platforms can evaluate performance on their own and designate their own measurement vendors—Disney, for example, already works with multiple vendors, and NBCU has launched a certified measurement partner program—so their innovation paths will differ from whatever the JIC ultimately achieves.

Streaming leader Netflix finally launched its ad-supported tier late last year and has insisted that advertising revenue could account for at least 10% of its annual revenue. Similarly, GroupM's business intelligence team recently stated that Netflix is poised to become a top 25 ad seller. As it prepares to take Paramount's place at the upfronts, Netflix's expanded partnership with Nielsen may strengthen the latter's position in streaming measurement—including measurement agreements with Amazon Prime Video for its transformative "Thursday Night Football" broadcasts.

"Whether now or in the future, all companies aspire to the Google model, which is vertical integration of audience, inventory, and measurement," Navin explained. "The largest clients will demand third-party verification... so you need your own data and measurement to tell the story and sell the product. At the same time, you need to reinforce that with third-party measurement from a set of best-in-class vendors."

Nielsen Is Not Going Away

No matter how much progress the JIC makes in advancing measurement and alternative currencies, Nielsen is unlikely to lose its monopoly position for at least the next few years.

"Nielsen is not going away, but the TV ad measurement space is facing tremendous competition and innovation," said EDO's Krim. "Nielsen is deeply embedded in the buying and selling process of TV advertising... these kinds of situations change very slowly."

While working to regain MRC accreditation, Nielsen also launched its cross-platform measurement product this month. As the first piece of the Nielsen One framework, Nielsen One Ads aims to provide a unified and deduplicated view of advertising across linear TV, connected TV (CTV), desktop, and mobile. But regardless of how well its new product performs, the company's troubles have already given the industry a glimpse of a future no longer dominated by Nielsen.

"Over the past few years, the industry has decided it does not want a monopolist taking a 3% cut from every transaction. So, no matter how good its product is, the headwinds Nielsen faces are quite significant," said Samba TV's Navin.

While media groups and their partners focused on innovative testing last year, 2023 could see thousands of ad campaigns measured outside of Nielsen's currency, with companies like NBCU expanding their earlier tests of multiple alternative measurement vendors. That said, the formation of the JIC and the increase in alternative currency deals are unlikely to have a material impact on transactions before 2024—especially when one side of the buy-sell equation is not particularly focused on Nielsen's troubles and progress.

"Buyers are not particularly unhappy with Nielsen. Nielsen charges buyers far less than sellers, and for buyers, having a single currency to evaluate deals is very convenient," Krim explained. "Many alternative currency players are beating their chests saying 'we're going to topple Nielsen's hegemony'—but for buyers, that only makes their jobs a lot more complicated."

Ultimately, alternative currencies and cross-platform measurement are just the first step toward providing advertisers with a clearer view of their audiences. The next step—determining which ad impressions drive conversions and which drive brand outcomes—is even more important for marketers, especially amid heightened economic uncertainty, tightening ad budgets, and rising stakes.

"Marketers tell us they want (and need) deeper insight into the behavioral segments they reach. They want to tie outcomes to currency," said Chris Kelly, CEO of brand analytics platform Upwave, in an email comment. "All currency vendors must be prepared to link their ratings to outcomes, or nothing else matters."