"Joyful and Bright": How Marketers Are Navigating an Ambitious Holiday Shopping Season

With Thanksgiving and Black Friday approaching, the 2024 holiday shopping season is entering its peak phase, as consumers prepare to fulfill their record-breaking spending intentions. At the level of holiday marketing campaigns, this optimistic spending forecast aligns with brands' bets on popular technology and broader media strategies.

Research shows that consumers plan to significantly increase their spending this year,and the fourth quarter may be more optimistic for brands than in recent years. However, marketers still face challenges. Consumer behavior and preferences continue to evolve, requiring brands to strike the right tone in holiday campaigns while keeping up with the latest trends and emerging channels. Consumers' willingness to seek better deals also shows a lack of loyalty. To drive sales, some brands are trying to balance joyful and value-oriented messaging, while others hope to seize the moment with the help of artificial intelligence (AI).

"Overall, we think the outlook is merry and bright," said Brian McCarthy, principal at Deloitte. "Our confidence in the economy has increased, and holiday shoppers plan to spend more this season, with spending intentions at a record high."

According to Deloitte's 2024 holiday retail survey,consumers are expected to spend an average of $1,778 this year, an 8% increase from last year. Deloitte cited U.S. Census Bureau data showing retail sales grew 4.3% from last November to January 2024, reaching $1.54 trillion. The increase in spending is partly attributed to a more optimistic economic outlook and perceived price increases, indicating that although financial difficulties have not fully subsided, consumers are in a mindset ready to open their wallets.

"Gazing into the crystal ball"

Another sign of economic optimism is that, according to a survey by TvScientific and Rockerbox, more than a third of marketers this season have larger holiday advertising budgets than last year. However, increased investment comes with a cost: 60% of marketers say they feel more pressure to deliver measurable results and return on investment.

Harry Guild, strategy director at BBH USA, said that as consumer behavior has changed in recent years, confidence in achieving expected holiday results has been clouded by a wave of uncertainty.

"I think about 10 years ago, the holiday season was always very fixed; it was a familiar space," Guild said. "Now, every year we have to gaze into the crystal ball a bit more."

Among this year's priorities, Deloitte data shows that gift spending is expected to remain roughly flat compared to last year, while clothing and accessories remain the most popular gifts. Conversely, many consumers may focus more on experiences, such as hosting gatherings, with spending in this area expected to grow 16% year-over-year. Online retailers (71%) and big-box stores (55%) are the top shopping destinations.

To reach consumers, 41% of advertisers plan to increase connected TV (CTV) spending this year, according to TvScientific data. This channel was rated the best performer in last year's holiday campaigns, with social media ranking second. Most advertisers (54%) plan to launch holiday marketing in the third quarter, slightly up from 51% last year.

While timing and channel mix are routine considerations for holiday advertising, this year's presidential election adds extra weight. TvScientific's report shows that half of advertisers (50%) believe the political showdown will affect the visibility of their seasonal campaigns and suggest the election could lead to a shortened holiday shopping season.

Why multi-channel is a "table stakes"

Deloitte notes that for marketers looking to stand out this season, a multi-channel presence is likely to become a "table stakes," as consumers shop across a broader range of channels. Meanwhile, consumers report thatthey are more loyal to retailers when they have a consistent experience online and in-store。

True Religion is adopting a broader media strategy this year to solidify new customers. The retailer's marketing campaign includesa partnership with superstar Megan Thee Stallion and rapper Hunxho, spanning in-store and online, including out-of-home advertising and content across editorial, influencer, and paid channels such as CTV, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook. The push also includes its first audio ad, supplemented by tests on Pinterest and Reddit.

Kristen D'Arcy, chief marketing officer at True Religion, said that maintaining a common thread across the channels the brand uses—such as repetition of specific colors or messages—is crucial for consistency. However, she added that creating native content for each platform to feel authentic is equally important.

"I think of it as matching luggage, but obviously in different sizes," D'Arcy said. "Depending on where you engage with us, you'll feel the brand's consistency through tone and visuals... but the content will be planned differently by channel to ensure it feels native."

Marketing across multiple channels may also be key to retaining consumers, as loyalty is under threat. Deloitte data shows that 62% of shoppers are willing to switch to lower-priced brands, and 25% say they are looking for "dupe" products. Timing may also be critical, with 38% of consumers planning to shop during October promotions, but most spending is expected in late November.

Balancing joy and affordability

Brands trying to resonate with consumers this season are using different messaging themes, but a combination of value and traditional holiday elements is common.

JCPenney is doubling down on its commitment to working families through its successful"Really Big Deals Reveals" campaign. Amazon, meanwhile, is opting for a more emotional message with its "Midnight Opus" global campaign, positioning the e-commerce giant as a hub for genuine expression. The retailer used a similar strategy in the2023 holiday seasonas well.

Walmart'spop culture tentpole eventhighlights the moment people find the perfect gift. A 60-second ad blends the warmth of gift-giving with iconic scenes from shows and movies like "Gilmore Girls" and "National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation." The retailer's focus on culture (a similar strategy was used last year) aims to help it stand out in the crowded retail category while still highlighting affordability.

True Religion launched its holiday campaign "Where Holiday Wishes Come True" in the fall, starring Megan Thee Stallion. This choice reflects the brand's push to strengthen connections with female consumers, a group that once led the business by a 60/40 ratio over men but has since seen that ratio reverse.

"When we thought about the right person for the campaign, we knew we wanted a female powerhouse," D'Arcy said. "Over the past few years, we've really doubled down on growing the women's business."

Reflecting expectations that consumers will spend more on experiences this year, SharkNinja'sglobal campaign starring football icon David Beckhampositions Ninja kitchen appliances as tools for effortlessly hosting holiday gatherings. The convenience theme also appears inUrban Outfitters' "Happy LOLidays"campaign, which promotes the retailer as a hub for stress-free gifting.

Embracing trends

Some retailers are using the holiday season to experiment with hot technologies like AI. American Eagle's quarterly strategy includes being the first retailer in North America to launch an AI gift guide chatbot on WhatsApp. CMO Craig Brommers explained that the appdominates international markets，and is increasingly popular in the U.S.The Meta-owned platform is especially popular amongthe retailer's target Gen Z audience。

To that end, American Eagle used Meta ads to invite consumers to chat via WhatsApp to find the perfect gift. Consumers who click on the ad are redirected to WhatsApp, where they can start shopping with prompts like "I need some gift ideas." The system then asks clarifying questions, such as who they're shopping for, color preferences, and hobbies, until a range of products is presented.

Brommers explained that American Eagle's use of AI represents a valuable opportunity to position itself as an authority on the timeless question of "what to give loved ones." The move also reflectsthe brand's desire to be first to market. However, that doesn't mean the project was rushed—the team spent months refining aspects like the customer journey and tone.

"We wanted it to feel like chatting with a friend or someone like our store associates," Brommers said. "How to bring that real-world experience into the digital world—that's been one of our guiding principles."

The gift of social media

Perhaps less flashy than AI, but equally important to holiday strategy is a strong mobile presence. Deloitte data shows that about 60% of Gen Z and millennials plan to shop via smartphones this year. Additionally, 13% of consumers—mostly younger generations—plan to buy gifts on social media.

Emily Brown, senior strategy manager at Billion Dollar Boy, said that for brands looking to reach digital shoppers, whether in-app or through social platforms, minimizing the path to purchase will be key to driving sales. In a year marking the highest social investment the executive has observed, acting quickly will also be crucial for brands to stand out.

"We've been working with brands for months on holiday planning, so it's going to be very crowded. Even if you've been preparing a campaign for months, I think you also have to have a plan to quickly keep up with trends as they happen," Brown said.

Brown noted that one of the hot spots on social media remains TikTok Shop, a platform that has succeeded in driving sales and brand awareness for ByteDance's app, especially in beauty and retail. That said, TikTok Shop has its flaws, particularly regardingquestions about its legitimacyandoversaturation of user feeds. To spark interest, the executive suggests brands consider selling products exclusively on TikTok Shop,a move Coca-Cola tried earlier this year。

As marketers navigate various trends and plan the timing and placement of their strategies, BBH's Guild also urges brands not to view the holiday season as monolithic—there are numerous moments around the season's signature events that also represent key marketing opportunities.

"It's not Christmas morning every day—you don't eat chocolate for breakfast every day," Guild said. "There are lots of small moments in the holiday season. I think it's about understanding that it's not a one-off event but 10 weeks of different content with different types of emotional swings, and then understanding how to position yourself throughout."