As major brands allocate more budgets to social and creator-first marketing, traditional broadcasters are advocating for a balanced media mix, even though formats like premium video carry higher upfront costs.

Over the past few years, NBCUniversal has partnered with Gain Theory, a marketing effectiveness consultancy under WPP, to conduct marketing mix modeling and research demonstrating that premium video—the core business of the Peacock parent company—delivers stronger performance when compared with campaigns skewed toward lower-funnel tactics. Last Thursday, the two companies shared key findings from their collaboration at an Association of National Advertisers event held at WPP's downtown Manhattan office.

NBCUniversal and Gain Theory used pooled data from advertiser categories including automotive, consumer packaged goods, retail, and pharmaceuticals to run simulations testing the value of premium video—that is, well-crafted video ads placed in trusted, brand-safe media environments. In the simulations, reallocating budgets assigned to premium video to non-premium social and digital ads produced markedly worse outcomes. In one case, a simulated media plan that cut premium video spending saw incremental revenue drop by 29%. Meanwhile, strategies that received premium video resources saw return on investment decline by 20% compared with more balanced media plans.

"By eroding the foundation or shifting these (premium video) budgets to other tactics in pursuit of short-term efficiency or similar goals, it not only impacts the performance of premium video buys but also the overall performance of the entire media plan," said Vignesh Kumar, senior director of measurement and insights at NBCUniversal, during the ANA presentation.

The takeaway is that an overemphasis on short-term visible gains may actually harm long-term performance. Marketers still need to make this case to chief financial officers, and even with data-driven insights to support it, that can be an uphill battle.

"You have to have a relatively sophisticated marketing framework. That's how we run our business and understand the objectives of these campaigns," said Laura Laird, senior director at Gain Theory, in conversation with Kumar. "So having a framework that reflects that complexity while also being able to communicate it in a simple, straightforward way to the rest of the organization is no easy feat."

Pillar opportunities

Kumar's point about short-term efficiency comes as chief marketing officers face greater pressure to tie marketing directly to outcomes, which can be challenging for premium video channels oriented toward long-term goals. Macroeconomic volatility has further rattled the industry, with marketing departments often bearing the brunt during downturns. Still, with the rise of connected TV, the video advertising landscape is evolving, and premium video may perform better in mid-funnel areas such as search than its reputation suggests, Kumar said.

"We know the mid-funnel is critical. That's where purchase decisions truly happen," Kumar said. "We see that even though premium video accounts for a significant share of media budgets among the brands we measured, it truly over-indexes in driving mid-funnel performance relative to its budget share."

This year, premium video has benefited from cyclical events such as the Winter Olympics and the FIFA World Cup, which attract substantial marketing investment and benefit publishers like NBCUniversal. In a recent series of presentations aimed at wooing advertisers, live sports was undeniably the dominant topic, and NBCUniversal was among those participating. The category is extremely costly for advertisers, and costs appear only to be rising. Still, treating these pillar moments as one-off activations often means marketers fail to get the most out of their hefty investments.

"Advertisers that participate in major events and continuously do audience targeting, we see 54% higher mid-funnel engagement compared with those that only participate in major events," Kumar said. "When you think about consistent messaging, it's about making sure you're not just present at those big events, but also understanding which tactics work day-to-day and combining that with those major moments."

Tapping into fan culture

The ANA discussion frequently circled back to the potential downsides of social-led marketing approaches, a strategy that has become increasingly common in the industry as marketers chase younger digital natives who have drifted away from linear TV. Kumar delved into this when discussing fan culture, which is often built around TV and film franchises—such as Bravo's high-drama reality shows—but nurtured through social media.

By combining Gain Theory's marketing mix modeling with additional research, NBCUniversal found that its premium ad experiences delivered 79% higher attention compared with digital and social platforms that condition audiences to scroll through feeds, Kumar said. Additionally, campaigns with a hybrid strategy saw an 84% lift in consideration intent compared with social-only marketing efforts.

"We find that premium video is the foundation of the entire media plan because it reaches truly engaged and passionate fan bases," Kumar said.